瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - International sugar market has a supply - side overhang due to favorable supply prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries during the monsoon season, which keeps the raw sugar market price under pressure. In the domestic market, there is a divergence between domestic and foreign price strengths. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import pressure has been released. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, suppressing sugar prices. On the demand side, during the summer consumption peak, the food and beverage industry has inventory replenishment needs, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, providing some support for prices. Overall, domestic demand is rising, domestic futures price performance is stronger than the overseas market, with multiple factors at play, and the market is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to keep an eye on arrivals at ports and summer consumption, and for now, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,866 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 342,009 lots, an increase of 9,969 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 20,940, down 158. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,187 lots. The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,460 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,520 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,665 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,743 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Nanning, it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. Brazil's total sugar exports are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,480 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,420 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 275 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 197 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.79%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.79%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 4.62%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.92%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center reported that the average yield and quality of sugarcane in the central - southern region declined in June. On Wednesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.06%, while the domestic sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.69%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is favorable, and the expectation of oversupply has been weighing on the raw sugar market price [2].