沪铜产业日报-20250724

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with increasing positions, spot discounts, and weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has slightly rebounded but remains in the negative range. The supply is expected to increase slightly steadily, while the demand is temporarily weak due to the seasonal off - peak consumption season. However, with the increasing macro - policy support, the industry outlook is gradually improving. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,890 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,941 dollars/ton, up 10.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest is 181,496 lots, up 8,601 lots. The LME copper inventory is 124,825 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,795 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,785 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The CU main contract basis is - 95 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The output of refined copper is 130.20 million tons, up 4.80 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan have both decreased by 20 yuan/metal ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,840 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 29.11 billion yuan, up 8.7114 billion yuan; the cumulative real estate development investment is 466.5756 billion yuan, up 104.2372 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.65%, up 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.98%, down 0.04%. The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.68%, down 0.0044%; the at - the - money option purchase - put ratio is 1.5, up 0.0422 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump plans to impose 15% - 50% tariffs on most countries. The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most products, and the EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan of up to 93 billion euros with a maximum rate of 30% [2].