瑞达期货红枣产业日报-20250724

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Summer seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, substituting for tonic products like red dates. Red date demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with slow inventory digestion and high old - crop inventory. The new - season crop is in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, down 5 - 10% from the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% from 2024. Red dates fluctuate repeatedly in the game between high old - crop inventory and differences in the reduction range of new - season production. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 10,515 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 125,888 lots, a decrease of 6,797 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,395 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 8,893 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,448 lots [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The prices of red dates in different regions are as follows: the unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade gray jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.35 yuan/jin, the unified price of red dates in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, the first - grade gray jujube wholesale price in Henan is 4.35 yuan/jin, the unified price of red dates in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg, the special - grade red date price in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, the special - grade red date price in Hebei is 9.81 yuan/kg, the special - grade red date price in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg, and the first - grade red date price in Guangdong is 9.8 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual red date production is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 6.069 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 hectares compared with the previous period [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,320 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week, a 1.05% month - on - month decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase. The monthly export volume of red dates is 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The red date wholesale price in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, is 20 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiangni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of Hao Xiangni is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 24, the temperature in Kashgar was between 21 - 34°C. Jujube farmers were actively engaged in field management such as watering and fertilizing. The temperature was suitable for fruit setting, and the jujube fruits were significantly larger than those in the First Division of the Corps and Aksu. The estimated mainstream per - mu yield is 600 - 800 kg. Attention should be paid to the growth situation and weather changes in the producing areas [2]. 3.7 Trading Suggestion - It is recommended to wait and see for now due to the high old - crop inventory and differences in the reduction range of new - season production [2].