Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] Core View - The current inventory is at a five - year low, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large number of summer cooling fruits on the market impacts apple demand, and the potential increase in new - season apple production restricts the price rhythm. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and pay attention to controlling risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 7969 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 93548 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 2518 hands. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5396 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 962 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged 80 and above, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.89 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 80.6 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 million tons. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.05, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.12, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 4330.8 million dollars, and the monthly export value of apples is 1955488 - 245562.17 million dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.63 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of bananas is 6.06 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg. The wholesale price of watermelons is 3.92 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 5.8 vehicles, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market, it is 9.2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market, it is 16.6 vehicles, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 16.22%, and that of at - the - money put options is 16.23%, with a day - on - day increase of 0.48% [2] Industry News - On July 24, 2025, the inventory trading in the western production areas is coming to an end, the listing volume of early - maturing fruits is still small, the transaction price remains stable, and the sales are okay. In the Shandong production area, the trading of fruit farmers' goods is a bit chaotic, some fruit farmers are eager to sell, the market is stable but weak, and most of the merchants' goods are self - shipped, with a general sales speed. The apple 2510 contract closed up 0.25% on Thursday. According to Mysteel statistics, the preliminary forecast of the national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas is 70.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.15 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 11.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%, and the inventory removal speed is average. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area is 3.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.98%, and the sales are slightly faster than last week. The storage capacity ratio in the Gansu production area is 2.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92%, and the sales are sporadic [2]
苹果产业日报-20250724
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-24 09:13