Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the I2509 contract rebounded but faced pressure. Macroscopically, a Sino - US economic and trade talk is scheduled. In terms of supply - demand, the arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, domestic port inventory increased, and steel mill blast furnace operating rates and molten iron production recovered. Recently, the market has been trading on the upward expectation, but with the sharp rise in ore prices, there may be a short - term correction. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD of the I2509 contract shows a high - level callback. Operationally, short - term intraday trading is recommended with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 811.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the position volume is 562,835 hands, down 17,104 hands. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 27.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 22,962 hands, down 3,302 hands. The DCE warehouse receipt is 3,100.00 hands, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract's 15:00 quote is 105.05 US dollars/ton, up 0.61 US dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 839 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 732 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The I main contract basis is 28 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 104.00 US dollars/ton, down 0.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.34, up 0.07. The estimated import cost is 854 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly departure volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 3,109.10 million tons, up 122.00 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports is 2,511.80 million tons, down 371.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports is 14,381.51 million tons, up 34.62 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,822.16 million tons, down 157.48 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days, unchanged. The weekly daily output of 266 mines is 40.64 million tons, up 0.96 million tons; the weekly operating rate of 266 mines is 64.00%, up 1.17%. The weekly iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 45.25 million tons, down 5.47 million tons. The BDI index is 2,120.00, up 85.00. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.59 US dollars/ton, up 0.74 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 9.87 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, up 0.35%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.92%, up 1.05%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.60%, up 0.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.62%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.88%, down 1.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.48%, down 0.43% [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2,794.77 million tons, up 75.95 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption is 113.47 million tons, up 1.32 million tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 24.63, up 0.39 from the previous period. From July 14 - 20, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil is 1,424.5 million tons, up 31.5 million tons from the previous period, and the inventory has increased for three consecutive periods and reached the peak since the beginning of the year [2] Key Focus - Friday's domestic iron ore port inventory, steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate [2]
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250724
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-24 09:13