瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250724

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to slow. The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise today. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a high - short strategy in the medium - to long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the main contract position was 336,274 lots, up 1,498 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 68,472 lots, down 18,540 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 50,106 lots, up 53 lots; the spread between August and September industrial silicon was - 20 yuan, up 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 10,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 410 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, up 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 71.38%, up 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - At the Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar, it was proposed to revise the comprehensive energy consumption standards for polysilicon products to promote the elimination of backward production capacity. In the industrial silicon supply side, the fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable, large enterprises have no news of production cuts or shutdowns, the production cost in the Southwest has decreased, the resumption of production in Baoshan is positive, but that in Nujiang and Dehong is below expectations, and the overall operating rate in Sichuan has not increased significantly [2] 3.7 Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen, production profits have declined, costs have increased significantly, and the operating rate has increased, supporting industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is in a state of reduced load operation, downstream demand has declined significantly, and it is expected that production will be difficult to increase, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and demand for industrial silicon is difficult to boost [2]