瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The polysilicon price increased due to rising coal and energy prices and the influence of the anti - involution conference, but it has deviated far from the fundamentals. If the downstream cannot absorb the high prices, it will form a negative feedback. With the possible addition of delivery brands by the exchange, the price may return to the mean. It is recommended not to chase the upward trend and suggests temporary observation or laying out put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 53,765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,685 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 172,564 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 6,923 lots. The price difference between August and September polysilicon is 115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 44,075 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,520 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 46,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis of polysilicon is - 4,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 975 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no month - on - month change. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all with no month - on - month change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,690 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 10,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,113 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.01 US dollars/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6.7386 million kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 318,300 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 88,975,860 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,424,120 units; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.31 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 26.63, with a month - on - month increase of 4.34 [2] 3.6 Industry News - At the Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar on July 24, Yan Dazhou, the director of the National Engineering Laboratory for Polysilicon Material Preparation Technology, stated that the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon has been continuously decreasing, and the revision of the comprehensive energy consumption standard per unit product of polysilicon is being promoted. The current first - level, second - level, and third - level comprehensive energy consumption per unit product of polysilicon are ≤7.5 kgce/kg, 8.5 kgce/kg, and 10.5 kgce/kg respectively, and the revised corresponding standards are expected to be ≤5 kgce/kg, 6 kgce/kg, and 7.5 kgce/kg to eliminate backward production capacity [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - From the supply side, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some undergoing shutdown for maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures did not cause significant fluctuations in production capacity. From the demand side, affected by the anti - involution conference, production capacity declined significantly, but the price gradually recovered. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down to a certain range, and the marginal demand has weakened. As the profits of silicon wafer enterprises stabilize, the overall decline in production is expected to end, and battery cell enterprises also have production reduction plans [2] 3.8 Key Focus - No news today [2]