Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the opening rate of tire enterprises is expected to have little overall fluctuation. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,400 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week, after the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical, and Heze Kexin, the domestic supply increment will gradually appear, and the inventory of production enterprises is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the current production of enterprises tends to be stable, and orders in the middle and late ten - days are expected to increase slightly, which will still have a small driving effect on the overall opening [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,285 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 410 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 48,828, with a week - on - week increase of 237 [2]. - The spread between August and September of synthetic rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber is 2,390 tons, with no change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,000 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,000 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 225 yuan/ton; the price of Brent crude oil is 65.25 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 US dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 68.51 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,100 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.77 million tons, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,600 tons; the opening rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 47.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 65.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 632 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 25,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 850 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 330 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The opening rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 75.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.07 percentage points; the opening rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.262 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.523 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.85 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days [2]. Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.22% compared with the previous period [2]. - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250724
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-24 09:07