Report Summary 1. Core View - The overall inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually returned to normal levels, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises is stabilizing, and there is a certain increase in orders in the middle and late ten - day periods, which is expected to slightly boost the overall operation. Enterprises adjust production flexibly according to their own inventory and order situations. In the short term, the overall operating rate is expected to fluctuate little. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,500, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,300 [2]. 2. Key Data Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,245 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,120 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 795 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,125 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 129,837 lots, up 658 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 66,552 lots, up 4,347 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 27,628 lots, up 3,059 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 12,345 lots, down 1,274 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 186,680 tons, down 20 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 37,398 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 405 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,934 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 159 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheet is 66.37 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber film is 63.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump is 49.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 174.6 US dollars/ton, up 44.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 32.6 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, down 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, up 5.85 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.1%, up 0.54 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 75.99%, up 3.07 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 46.18 days, up 0.42 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 12.54%, down 0.49 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.98%, down 3.81 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 29.28%, up 3.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 29.28%, up 3.15 percentage points [2]. 3. Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.28%. The bonded area inventory is 77,900 tons, a decline of 1.39%; the general trade inventory is 556,700 tons, a decline of 0.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 2.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.29 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.21 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.40 percentage points. As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2]. - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan production area, due to rainfall, the supply of latex is scarce, and the purchase price remains firm. In the Hainan production area, the weather has improved, tapping operations have gradually resumed, and the supply of raw materials on the island has gradually increased seasonally. Driven by the strong futures and spot market, the enthusiasm of some processing factories to bid up the price of raw materials has continued to rise [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250724
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-24 09:07