瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the peak season of aquaculture is coming, which boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The high - operating rate of oil mills and the continuous inventory build - up of soybean meal suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. There is an expected decline in pig inventory and the promotion of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. The short - term trading is recommended, mainly due to the decline in positions after the previous continuous rise [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined from July 1 - 20, which restricts palm oil prices. But the significant increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with a relatively loose supply of vegetable oil and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, restricting market prices. However, the decrease in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may reduce forward pressure. Affected by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil rose synchronously, but due to the expected resumption of China - Australia trade, rapeseed oil has been weaker than soybean and palm oil recently, with intensified short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9,492 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2,682 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed was 698.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,082 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan [2]. - Inter - monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 inter - monthly spread of rapeseed oil was 53 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 9 - 1 inter - monthly spread of rapeseed meal was 270 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 211,985 lots, down 8,793 lots; the open interest of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 512,685 lots, down 25,919 lots [2]. - Net Long Positions of Top 20 Holders: The net long positions of rapeseed oil were 12,249 lots, up 4,034 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal were 22,215 lots, down 11,788 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,570 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,860 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - Average Price and Related Ratios: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,590 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 4,990.05 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 3.5, down 0.05; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 94 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal was - 112 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,270 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Import: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points; the crushing profit of imported rapeseed was 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas was 9.25 million tons, down 0.04 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal areas was 1.2 million tons, down 0.31 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region was 58.45 million tons, down 0.82 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in the East China region was 35.13 million tons, down 2.91 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region was 5.6 million tons, down 0.32 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in the South China region was 27 million tons, down 1.2 million tons [2]. - Delivery Volume: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.91 million tons, down 0.38 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 million tons, down 0.14 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly output of feed was 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4,578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 25.07%, up 2.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 25.07%, up 2.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.33%, up 1.44 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 16.33%, up 1.44 percentage points [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 15.55%, up 3.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.53%, up 0.69 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 10.84%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.67%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 23, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, following the upward trend of the vegetable oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures rose 8.10 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 698.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the analyst's expectation of 71%, the previous week's 70%, and the same as the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is currently good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest [2].