瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a recommended light - position oscillatory trading strategy [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and weak demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is recommended [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is also recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 3,427 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan. The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,639 US dollars/ton, down 13 US dollars [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 17,539 hands to 309,943 hands; the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 4,907 hands to 189,037 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,350 tons to 444,800 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons to 108,822 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 645 yuan to 65 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 100 yuan to - 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 4,084.65 tons to 155,616.27 tons; the export volume decreased by 8.11 tons to 64.33 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.5 million tons to 4,520.7 million tons; the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons to 587.37 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons; the production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.1 million tons to 126 million tons [2]. - The automobile production increased by 16.66 million vehicles to 280.86 million vehicles; the national real estate prosperity index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 0.04% to 10.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01% to 10.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0082% to 11.02%; the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0580 to 1.04 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump proposed to impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries and would be willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries opened their markets to the US [2]. - The US tariff increase would reduce global demand in the short term, raise import prices, and intensify inflation. It might also lead to geopolitical economic fragmentation [2]. - The EU and the US were moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most products, and the EU was preparing a retaliatory tariff plan [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The main alumina contract showed an oscillatory trend, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply was expected to be relatively sufficient in the short term, and the demand was supported by the electrolytic aluminum project [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The main Shanghai Aluminum contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak due to the off - season [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The main cast aluminum alloy contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply and demand were both weak, and the inventory was gradually accumulating [2].