瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250724

Report Overview - The report is the Carbonate Lithium Industry Daily Report on July 24, 2025 [1] 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 76,680 yuan/ton, up 7,300 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was -160,463 lots, down 1,892 lots; the position of the main contract was 436,727 lots, up 74,673 lots; the spread between near and far contracts was 1,500 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 10,754 lots/ton, up 665 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was -6,130 yuan/ton, down 7,200 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 0 US dollars/ton, down 730 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 6,800 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,966 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume was 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 52%, up 5 percentage points; the monthly production of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh [2] Downstream and Application - The price of ternary materials (811 - type, China) was 144,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (622 - power - type, China) was 119,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (523 - single - crystal type, China) was 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 32,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 52%, up 3 percentage points [2] New Energy Vehicle - The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales were 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales were 6,937,000 units, up 1,993,000 units; the monthly export volume was 205,000 units, down 7,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 1,060,000 units, up 455,000 units [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position was 210,332 lots, up 16,378 lots; the total put position was 89,733 lots, down 2,989 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 42.66%, down 5.1436 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.39%, down 0.0014 percentage points [2] 2. Industry News - With the progress of the "anti - involution" in the market, the prices of many commodity futures contracts have fluctuated significantly. On the evening of July 23, GZEE adjusted the price limit range, trading margin standard, trading fee standard and trading limit of relevant futures contracts such as industrial silicon, polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2] - According to the data from Chengdu Customs, in the first half of this year, Chengdu's total foreign trade imports and exports reached 427.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The import and export scale increased quarter by quarter. The exports of "new three" products increased by 33.6%, among which photovoltaic products and lithium - ion batteries increased by 185% and 204.8% respectively [2] - According to the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch, in June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium hydroxide remained basically flat. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow rapidly, and the installed capacity of power batteries increased year - on - year. The production of lithium salts remained stable, but the inventory increased due to lower sales willingness caused by falling prices [2] - The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. The EU may prepare a retaliatory tariff plan of up to 93 billion euros with a maximum rate of 30% in case an agreement cannot be reached before August 1 [2] 3. Core Viewpoints - The prices of many commodity futures contracts have fluctuated significantly. GZEE has taken measures to cool down the market and prevent risks [2] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where the industry expectation has been repaired, but the actual situation is still weak. The industry inventory is accumulating, and more effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [2] - In the option market, the subscription position dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding [2] - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market and pay attention to controlling risks [2]