大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - PTA: Recently, PTA devices have been operating stably, and a new device of Sanfangxiang has been put into production. However, polyester sales volume increased significantly yesterday, and the inventory pressure of polyester factories has been relieved. It is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate following the cost in the short term, and the basis will run weakly. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port has been concentrated. It is expected that the visible inventory will moderately recover early next week. Attention should be paid to the weather changes and the unloading progress of ships during the week. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will turn to a tight balance from July to August, which is significantly better than the previous market expectation. Driven by the tightening of the supply side and the good macro - atmosphere, the price center of ethylene glycol will mainly run strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery progress of overseas devices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The futures price of PTA fluctuated and rose yesterday. The macro - atmosphere was warm. Under the low processing margin, the maintenance of PTA devices increased. The market inquiry atmosphere improved slightly. The spot basis was weak. The current mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 0. The spot price is 4810, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 40, with the futures price at a premium. The inventory of PTA factories is 3.99 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 days. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract has changed from short to long [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol was strong, and the basis weakened significantly at the end of the session. The night - session of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward. The spot price was around a premium of 61 - 64 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. During the day, ethylene glycol adjusted at a high level, and the follow - up of buyers in the market was poor. At the end of the session, ethylene glycol rose slightly to around 4560 - 4565 yuan/ton. The high - level spot basis weakened rapidly, and the low - level transaction was around a premium of 50 - 55 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. In terms of US dollars, the center of the outer market of ethylene glycol moved upward. The negotiation of recent shipments was around 530 - 536 US dollars/ton, and the follow - up of some suppliers' buying was okay. The spot price is 4529, and the basis of the 09 contract is 44, with the futures price at a discount. The total inventory in East China is 46.88 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52 tons. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is short, and the short position has increased [6][7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory [11]. - Price Data: On July 24, 2025, compared with July 23, 2025, the price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 567.38 US dollars/ton; the price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 842 US dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA in the domestic market increased by 40 yuan/ton to 4820 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market increased by 40 yuan/ton to 4540 yuan/ton, etc. [12]. - Inventory Data: It includes the inventory data of PTA factories, ethylene glycol ports in East China, PET slices, and polyester products such as polyester staple fiber and polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][44]. - Operating Rate Data: It includes the operating rate data of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the PTA industry chain from 2020 to 2025 [51][53][55]. - Profit Data: It includes the profit data of PTA processing, ethylene glycol production by different methods, and polyester fiber production from 2022 to 2025 [59][62][64].