大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250725

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, the market is expected to be volatile today. Although the plastic main contract is rebounding, driven by the macro - stable growth plan, the demand in the agricultural film off - season and weak downstream demand, along with neutral industrial inventory, will affect the market [4]. - For PP, the main contract is also rebounding, but due to weak demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, the market is expected to be volatile today [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a stable growth plan. The downstream demand is weak overall, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film slightly improved. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (+0), and the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 125, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.7%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include cost support and macro - policy promotion; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in the macro - aspect. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (+0), and the fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 1, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.0%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include cost support and macro - policy promotion; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [8]. Market Data - Spot and Futures: For LLDPE, the spot delivery product price is 7260 (unchanged), and the 09 - contract price is 7385 (+97). For PP, the spot delivery product price is 7180 (unchanged), and the 09 - contract price is 7181 (+85) [9]. - Inventory: LLDPE's comprehensive factory inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), and PP's comprehensive factory inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption showed different growth trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption also had various growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].