沪锌期货早报-20250725

Report Overview - The report is an early report on Shanghai Zinc futures dated July 25, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai Zinc ZN2509 will experience a period of sideways consolidation. The short - term view also suggests that the market will likely move sideways in the near term due to the previous day's trading pattern, where there was a star - line close, shrinking trading volume, long - position reduction, and a slight increase in short - positions [2][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, leading to a supply shortage of 56500 tons. The global zinc ore production from January to April was 4040600 tons. Overall, the fundamental situation is considered bullish [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price of zinc was 22910, and the basis was - 105, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On July 24, LME zinc inventory increased by 1575 tons to 116900 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 150 tons to 11940 tons. The inventory situation is regarded as neutral [2]. 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a sideways movement, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upwards, suggesting a bullish trend [2]. 5. Main Position Analysis - The main players held a net short position, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [2]. 6. Futures Market Quotes - On July 24, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 230054 lots, with a total trading value of 2642362530 yuan. The open interest was 242784 lots, an increase of 1179 lots [3]. 7. Spot Market Quotes - On July 24, the prices of various zinc - related products in the domestic spot market showed different trends. Zinc concentrate prices in Liuzhou increased by 60 yuan/ton to 17470 yuan/ton, zinc ingot prices in Shanghai rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22910 yuan/ton, etc [4]. 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From July 14 to July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 7.42 million tons to 8.08 million tons. Compared with July 17, it increased by 0.66 million tons, and compared with July 21, it increased by 0.54 million tons [5]. 9. Zinc Futures Warrant Report - On July 24, the total zinc warrants on the futures exchange were 11940 tons, a decrease of 150 tons compared to the previous day. The warrants in Guangdong decreased by 99 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 51 tons [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On July 24, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1575 tons to 116900 tons. The registered warrants were 60975 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 55925 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 47.84% [7]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On July 24, zinc concentrate prices in most major domestic cities increased by 60 yuan/ton. The prices in most regions were around 17470 yuan/ton, except for some areas like Hechi (17570 yuan/ton) and Liangshan Prefecture (17670 yuan/ton) [8]. 12. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On July 24, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters all increased by 60 yuan/ton. For example, the price from Chengchuan was 23240 yuan/ton, and that from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 27080 yuan/ton [12]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459700 tons, and the actual production was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470300 tons [14]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - No specific content about zinc concentrate processing fees is provided in the part of the report, only the title is given [16]. 15. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - On July 24, for the zn2509 contract, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 237988 lots, a decrease of 32846 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - positions were 95451 lots, a decrease of 2453 lots, and the total short - positions were 80331 lots, an increase of 465 lots [17].