大越期货尿素早报-20250725

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report - Report Date: July 25, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The urea market is currently in a state of oscillation. Although international urea prices remain strong, the second batch of domestic export quotas is significantly lower than the first batch, and domestic supply exceeds demand. The report predicts that the UR contract will continue to oscillate today [4]. Key Points Summary Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The domestic urea market shows an obvious oversupply situation. The second batch of export quotas is 120,000 tons, significantly lower than the first batch of 200,000 tons. The daily production and operating rate are still at a relatively high level, and inventories have increased again. Industrial demand, including compound fertilizer and melamine production, has declined, and agricultural demand has weakened. The spot price of the delivery product is 1,750 (+40), indicating a generally bearish fundamental outlook [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is -35, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.0%, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is also a bearish factor [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish sign [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to oscillate today, considering the strong international prices, the lower - than - expected export quotas, and the obvious domestic oversupply situation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: The international urea price remains strong [5]. - Bearish Factors: High operating rates and daily production, weak domestic demand, and lower - than - expected export quotas [5]. - Main Logic: The main influencing factors are international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | The spot price of the delivery product is 1,750 (+40), Shandong spot is 1,760 (+50), Henan spot is 1,750 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2,540 [6]. | | Futures | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 contracts are 1,796 (+17), 1,804 (+11), and 1,785 (+12) respectively. The basis of the UR2509 contract is -35 [6]. | | Inventory | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), including 1.177 million tons of factory inventory and 245,000 tons of port inventory. The number of warehouse receipts is 2,523 (unchanged) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2,245.5 | - | 1,956.81 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4,906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |