Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk point is the El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,400, with a basis of 234, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have increased [3]. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300 [3]. Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [5]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,160, with a basis of 56, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5]. - Main Position: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have increased [5]. - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [5]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [6]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,640, with a basis of 148, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [6]. - Main Position: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Lido: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [7]. - Negative: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply - Imported Soybean Inventory: No specific data provided [8]. - Soybean Oil Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons [4]. - Soybean Meal Inventory: No specific data provided [12]. - Soybean Crushing by Oil Mills: No specific data provided [14]. - Palm Oil Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons [5]. - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons [6]. - Rapeseed Inventory: No specific data provided [24]. - Total Domestic Inventory of Oils and Fats: No specific data provided [26]. Demand - Apparent Consumption of Soybean Oil: No specific data provided [16].
大越期货油脂早报-20250725
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-25 01:08