大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20250725

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: With the second round of coke price increase implemented, coke enterprises' profits continue to recover, and their enthusiasm for purchasing coking coal is high. Currently, it is still in the replenishment cycle, which supports the price of raw coal. Additionally, the third round of coke price increase has been initiated, so there is an upward expectation for coking coal in the short - term. It is expected that the short - term price of coking coal may run strongly [2]. - Coke: Although the second round of coke price increase has been fully implemented, due to the continuous strengthening of raw coking coal prices, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state. Constrained by factors such as raw material supply shortage, the supply of coke shows a contraction trend. The high - level pig iron production of downstream steel mills and the continuous release of replenishment demand support the coke price. It is expected that coke may continue to run strongly in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coal enterprises' production is stable, but there is an expectation of supply tightening. The market sentiment is boosted, and some coke enterprises with low raw coal inventories are actively replenishing, driving up the coal price [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 1150, with a basis of - 48.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1902.8 tons, an increase of 45.9 tons from last week [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position increases [2]. - Expectation: The price is expected to run strongly in the short - term [2]. - Coke - Fundamentals: After the second round of price increase, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state due to high raw material costs and supply shortages [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 1570, with a basis of - 165, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 839.7 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from last week [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [5]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position decreases [5]. - Expectation: It is expected to continue to run strongly in the short - term [5]. Factors Affecting Prices - Coking Coal - Positive Factors: Rising pig iron production and limited supply growth [4]. - Negative Factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - Coke - Positive Factors: Rising pig iron production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [7]. Prices - Imported Coking Coal (July 24, 17:30): The prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia are provided, along with their price changes [8]. - Port Metallurgical Coke (July 24, 17:30): The prices and price changes of port metallurgical coke are presented [9]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 312 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 tons, a decrease of 11.1 tons from last week [19]. - Independent Coke Enterprises' Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 669.5 tons, a decrease of 21.4 tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons from last week [22]. - Steel Mills' Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 774 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week [25]. Other Indicators - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization of 230 independent coke enterprises in the country is 74%, unchanged from last week [36]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants in the country is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].