大越期货沪铜早报-20250725

Group 1: Report's Core View - The fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5% in June, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [3] - The basis shows a neutral situation with the spot price at 79,755 and a basis of -135, indicating a discount to the futures [3] - Inventory conditions are neutral. On July 24, copper inventory decreased by 50 to 124,775 tons, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons compared to last week [3] - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - sloping, and the main positions are net long with a decrease in long positions [3] - The expected copper price will experience an oscillatory adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3] Group 2: Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [4] Group 3: Supply - Demand Balance - In the Chinese annual supply - demand balance table, there was a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance is expected in 2025. For example, in 2024, production was 12.06 million tons, imports were 3.73 million tons, exports were 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption was 15.34 million tons, actual consumption was 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was 0.11 million tons [21][23] Group 4: Other Market Conditions - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - The processing fee has declined [17]