大越期货豆粕早报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal: US soybeans fluctuated and closed higher. The overall good weather in US soybean - growing areas, technical consolidation, and the wait for Sino - US tariff negotiations and growing weather in US soybean - growing areas influenced the market. Domestic soybean meal dropped significantly, with factors like the reduction of protein content in feed formulas by the Ministry of Agriculture, profit - taking, high July imports of soybeans, and weak spot prices suppressing the market. In the short term, it may return to a range - bound pattern. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040 [8]. - For soybeans: US soybeans fluctuated and closed higher, with similar influencing factors as for soybean meal. Domestic soybeans rebounded from the bottom, affected by the trend of US soybeans, technical consolidation, increased imports of soybeans, and the expectation of increased production of new - season domestic soybeans. In the short term, it is affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the expectation of increased imports of soybeans. The soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The market is neutral, with a bearish basis, a bullish inventory situation, a bullish position on the disk, a bullish main position, and is expected to be range - bound [8]. - Soybeans: The market is neutral, with a bullish basis, a bearish inventory situation, a bullish position on the disk, a bearish main position, and is also expected to be range - bound [10]. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good, and the US soybean market is expected to be strong above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [12]. - Domestic soybean imports reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at oil mills increased from low levels. The soybean and soybean - related products market declined due to the fall of US soybeans [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports post - holiday price expectations. With reduced pressure from the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal is in a short - term weak - oscillating pattern [12]. - Low domestic soybean meal inventory at oil mills supports short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war exist. Soybean meal is in a short - term oscillating pattern, waiting for clear South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean meal: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic soybean meal inventory at oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas. Bearish factors are high July imports of domestic soybeans and the continuous expectation of high - yield South American soybeans [13]. - Soybeans: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expectation of increased demand for domestic soybeans. Bearish factors are the continuous expectation of high - yield Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean meal trading data: From July 15th to July 24th, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - Soybean and soybean meal price data: From July 16th to July 24th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal changed. The spot price of soybean meal was relatively weak, and the discount of the spot price remained at a relatively high level [17][22]. - Soybean and soybean meal warehouse receipt data: From July 14th to July 24th, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal changed [19]. - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets: The report provides detailed data on the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - Soybean planting and harvesting progress: The report shows the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2024/25, as well as the growth progress in the US in 2024 [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - USDA monthly supply - demand reports: The report presents the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [41]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content Other Market - related Information - US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. - The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase. The arrivals in July 2025 were 10.50 million tons [44]. - The soybean inventory at oil mills increased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory continued to increase [45]. - The unexecuted contracts at oil mills decreased from a high level, and the long - term procurement demand increased [47]. - The soybean crushing volume at oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal production in June increased year - on - year [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the import soybean profit on the disk fluctuated slightly [51]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [53]. - The live pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak [55]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly [57]. - The domestic live - pig farming profit rebounded from a low level [59].