Report Information - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental aspect of polysilicon is not the main driving logic currently. After the end of the rush installation, the domestic demand has dropped significantly, and the supply is expected to increase. The supply - demand balance may become a long - term drag. The current market is mainly driven by policy and funds, with the policy stage boosting market sentiment. However, regulatory adjustments aim to curb excessive speculation, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure. In the short term, the market is expected to be cautiously strong and fluctuate at high levels [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main polysilicon contract broke through the previous high and fluctuated strongly. The PS2509 closed at 53,740 yuan/ton, up 5.15%. The trading volume was 1,123,795 lots, and the open interest was 10,067 lots, with a net decrease of 2,492 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The domestic demand will drop to around 45GW per month, while the supply will increase to 10 - 110,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 48 - 50GW. The supply - demand balance may be a long - term drag. The current market is driven by policy, funds, and fundamentals in order. The market is expected to be cautiously strong and fluctuate at high levels in the short term [4] 2. Market News - On July 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,020 lots, an increase of 240 from the previous trading day [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting an 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) as the main growth markets [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The installed solar power generation capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to June was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-25 01:34