Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In late July, as group pig sales recover and demand is in the off - season, pig prices may continue to face pressure. In the medium to long - term, pig supply will increase slightly, but initiatives such as anti - involution, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened environmental protection are beneficial to medium - and long - term pig prices. The far - month 2601 contract is expected to perform strongly due to factors like weight - reduction expectations and supply growth being less than demand growth. Attention should be paid to the impact of later policies on production capacity [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Futures Market - On the 24th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest price was 14,495 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton, a 2.25% decline from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,578 lots to 186,066 lots [9] Spot Market - On the 24th, the average price of foreign ternary pigs nationwide was 14.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day [9] Demand Side - The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level, and currently, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, slaughter enterprise orders are average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises remain low. On July 24, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 134,500 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 29,000 heads from a week ago [10] Supply Side - According to Yongyi data, the planned pig sales volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% month - on - month decrease from June. Currently, the sales progress of the breeding side has recovered, the enthusiasm for sales has increased compared to the beginning of the month, the average weight of pigs for sale has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is relatively high. There are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [10] Group 5: Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 111 yuan/pig, a weekly decrease of 54 yuan/pig; the average profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 126 yuan/pig, a weekly decrease of 82 yuan/pig [11][12] Group 6: Data Overview - In the week of July 17, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 542 yuan/pig, a 1 - yuan increase from the previous week [21] - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 2.2% year - on - year increase and a 1.72% quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.16 million heads. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the quarter - on - quarter changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [21] - As of the week of July 17, the average weight of pigs for slaughter nationwide was 128.83 kg, a 0.2 - kg decrease from the previous week, a 0.16% month - on - month decrease [21]
建信期货生猪日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-25 01:34