大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation with a supply - demand imbalance. The overall supply is relatively strong, while the demand growth is limited, leading to a continuous high inventory level. The cost structure varies among different production methods, with the salt - lake end having obvious cost advantages [8]. - The market is affected by multiple factors such as production costs, inventory levels, and import - export volumes. The price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and the overall market trend is affected by the supply - demand relationship and cost changes [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 68,690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.29%, resulting in a profit of 910 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 74,022 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.58%, resulting in a loss of 6,048 yuan/ton. The salt - lake end had a quarterly cash production cost of 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Basis: On July 24, the basis of the 09 contract was - 6,130 yuan/ton, and the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,550 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 58,039 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 41,271 tons, a 1.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 43,310 tons, a 4.54% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 142,620 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main position increased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Expectation: In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month was 81,150 physical tons, a 3.92% month - on - month increase. The import volume in June was 17,698 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month was 22,000 physical tons, a 24.31% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The futures closing prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase, with the increase ranging from 6.73% to 10.52% [14]. - Basis: The basis of various products showed a significant decline, with the decline rate ranging from - 217.39% to - 672.90% [14]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 11,654, an 8.37% increase from the previous value [14]. - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products showed different degrees of increase, while the prices of some products such as phosphoric acid iron remained unchanged [14]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore Supply: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different degrees of change. The production cost and profit of spodumene and lepidolite also changed, with the production profit of spodumene decreasing and the production cost of lepidolite increasing [16]. - Lithium Carbonate Supply: The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased by 8.34% compared with the previous month. The import volume decreased by 16.31% compared with the previous month, and the net import volume decreased by 24.43% compared with the previous month [16]. - Hydroxide Lithium Supply: The monthly production of hydroxide lithium decreased by 4.68% compared with the previous month, and the net export volume increased by 60.95% compared with the previous month [16]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium Battery Demand: The monthly production of lithium battery cells, the monthly loading volume of power batteries, and the export volume of lithium batteries showed different degrees of change. The price of lithium batteries and the cost of battery cells also changed [50]. - Ternary Precursor Demand: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors showed different degrees of change. The monthly production of ternary precursors increased, and the inventory decreased [56]. - Ternary Material Demand: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials showed different degrees of change. The weekly operating rate of ternary materials also changed [62]. - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium Demand: The price, cost, and production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different degrees of change. The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium increased [66]. - New Energy Vehicle Demand: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different degrees of change. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles also changed [74].