Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of asphalt is high, with refineries increasing production recently. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, and the current demand is below the historical average. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support has strengthened in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3583 - 3621 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is the high supply pressure and the weak demand recovery [12][13][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint - Supply: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 253900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 34.2761%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 57200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. The refineries have increased production recently, raising the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.8%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month and lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 is 14.5509%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points and lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 is 25%, unchanged month - on - month and lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 is 28%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 524.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 875.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has widened. The rising crude oil prices are expected to support the market in the short - term [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes below MA20, showing a neutral situation [9]. - Main Position: The main position has a net long position, and the long position has increased, showing a bullish situation [9]. - Basis: On July 24, the spot price in Shandong is 3785 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 183 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish situation [10]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 131900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. The in - plant inventory is 76100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 21000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.22%. The social inventory is continuously increasing, while the in - plant and port inventories are decreasing, showing a bullish situation [10]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the previous day's asphalt market, including the prices, changes, and trading volumes of different contracts, as well as indicators such as inventory, production, and开工率 [16][17]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Basis Trend: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - Main Contract Spread: It presents the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 4. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 5. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It includes the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [37][38][40]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [44][45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [46][47]. - Production: It shows the historical weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [49][50]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It presents the historical price trend of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil [53][55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - 开工率: It presents the historical weekly asphalt开工率 from 2021 - 2025 [59][60]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It shows the historical trend of asphalt maintenance loss estimation from 2018 - 2025 [61][62]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [64][66][67]. - Social and In - Plant Inventories: It presents the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [68][69]. - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: It shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [71][72]. - Import and Export Situation: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the price difference trend of imported Korean asphalt [74][75][78]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [80][81]. - Apparent Consumption: It presents the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - Downstream Demand: It includes the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales) [86][87][90]. - Asphalt开工率: It shows the historical开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98]. - Downstream开工情况: It presents the historical开工率 of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and production [104][105].
大越期货沥青期货早报-20250725
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-25 01:29