建信期货工业硅日报-20250725

Report Overview - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The main price of industrial silicon futures has encountered resistance in its upward movement and is undergoing adjustment. The overall supply - demand remains loose. Currently, the dominant factors of the market are policy > funds > fundamentals. The continuous increase in spot prices compresses the adjustment space of the futures market. For the short - term, it is expected to show a cautiously strong and volatile trend, and a bullish trend continuation requires a strong breakthrough above the 10,000 - yuan mark [4] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The closing price of Si2509 was 9,630 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The trading volume was 1,172,879 lots, and the open interest was 336,274 lots, with a net increase of 1,498 lots [4] - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4] - Outlook: Southwest restarts offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang, and the monthly output change is not significant compared to the first half of the year. Photovoltaic demand has slightly increased due to the restart of polysilicon enterprises, but the demand has decreased due to the shutdown and rectification of a Shandong organic silicon enterprise. Overall, the supply - demand remains loose [4] 3.2 Market News - On July 23, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,776 lots, a net decrease of 330 lots from the previous trading day [5] - On July 18, the work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon export volume reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month surge of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, reaching a 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) being the main incremental markets [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]