Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment phase. The spot cotton price index has increased, and the pure - cotton yarn market price has risen, but the downstream has difficulty in increasing volume. Spinning mills are still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate has decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has few inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroeconomically, trade negotiations are approaching. Internationally, the cotton growth progress is slow but the good - quality rate is improving, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area has increased, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. Supply pressure has emerged in the short - term, but the tight commercial inventory contradiction in the 2024/25 season still exists. The short - term main contract is in a volatile adjustment, with the position shifting to the far - month contract and the 9 - 1 spread converging [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The pure - cotton yarn market price has risen, but the downstream is difficult to increase volume. Spinning mills are in large - scale losses, and the operating rate has decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has few inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders [7]. - Market Analysis: Macroeconomically, trade negotiations are approaching. Internationally, the growth progress is slow but the good - quality rate is good, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area has increased, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. The supply side has brought short - term pressure to cotton prices, but the tight commercial inventory contradiction in the 2024/25 season still exists. The short - term main contract is in a volatile adjustment, with the position shifting to the far - month contract and the 9 - 1 spread converging [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In mid - July, most parts of Xinjiang had high temperatures. Precipitation was higher in most parts of Hami and lower in the rest of Xinjiang. Sunshine hours were higher in parts of northern Xinjiang and lower in the rest. The weather was beneficial to the growth of summer corn in southern Xinjiang but not conducive to the growth of spring wheat, spring corn, cotton, and fruit [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][19]
建信期货棉花日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-25 01:38