建信期货镍日报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 24, Shanghai nickel showed strong performance, with the 2509 contract hitting a recent high of 124,660 and closing at 124,360, up 0.66%. The total open interest of the index increased by 4,395 to 178,067 lots. The oversupply situation of nickel has not changed, and price pressure still exists [7]. - With the gradual approval of additional RKAB quotas in Indonesia, the supply of nickel ore will be abundant, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. The price of nickel iron has rebounded slightly to 909 yuan per nickel point, but most smelters in Indonesia are still at a loss at this price. After the conversion to high - grade nickel matte, the reduction is limited, and the support for prices is also limited. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season with high inventories, making it difficult to effectively support the raw material end. The weak atmosphere of nickel iron and stainless steel also drags down the nickel ore end [7]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate has continued to rise slightly to 27,260. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize temporarily under the support of low inventories in nickel salt factories and the rigid replenishment demand of precursors. Overall, the fundamentals of nickel have not changed significantly. Although the performance of the industrial chain has slightly improved recently with the price rebound, it remains weak. There is an expectation of weakening support from the ore end. In the short term, macro factors support the temporary strong performance of Shanghai nickel, but the rebound space should be viewed with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On July 24, the 2509 contract of Shanghai nickel refreshed its recent high, and the index's total open interest increased. The nickel market's oversupply pattern persists, and price pressure is still present [7]. - As additional RKAB quotas in Indonesia are approved, nickel ore supply will be loose, and there is a possibility of a decline in premiums and ore prices. The price of nickel iron has rebounded slightly, but most Indonesian smelters are still in the red. The reduction after the conversion to high - grade nickel matte is limited, and the support for prices is weak. Stainless steel is in the off - season with high inventories, unable to support the raw material end effectively. The weak situation of nickel iron and stainless steel also affects the nickel ore market [7]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate has risen slightly and is expected to stabilize. Overall, the nickel fundamentals have not changed much. Although the industrial chain has shown some improvement with the price rebound, it is still weak, and the support from the ore end may weaken. In the short term, macro factors support the strong performance of Shanghai nickel, but the rebound space needs careful consideration [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The Secretary - General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that Indonesia's actual nickel ore production in 2025 was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual output. The low production was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas. Indonesia also imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in the first half of the year. Since January 2025, the cost pressure on Indonesia's nickel industry has been rising due to policies and taxes. The APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance the industry's international reputation [8][10]. - Bulgaria has launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. The project was developed by Advance Green Energy AD and completed in six months [10]. - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which significantly reduces silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency. This innovation is expected to reduce production costs and improve the sustainability and scalability of solar cell manufacturing [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, bringing the total approved storage capacity to over 1.6 GW. The project is expected to create jobs and help Scotland achieve its energy goals [10].