大越期货菜粕早报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2660 - 2720. The market is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Although the import of Canadian rapeseed is increasing, the short - term inventory pressure on oil mills is not significant, and the market will maintain a short - term range - bound pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a 2660 - 2720 range - bound state. The market is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. Low oil mill operation and inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season, and the import of rapeseed is increasing, but the short - term inventory of oil mills has no pressure. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive impact may be limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market while maintaining good demand expectations. The slight decrease in Canada's annual rapeseed production supports the external futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Globally, the rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected Canadian production. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting effect on rapeseed production between the two countries, and the geopolitical conflict may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish Factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - Current Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [26][27]. - Price and Transaction Data: From July 15th to 24th, the average transaction price and volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented, as well as the price data of rapeseed meal futures and spot, and the statistical data of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts [14][16][18]. - Other Data: The import volume of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased slightly, and the inventory of rapeseed meal remained low. The rapeseed processing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly. The prices of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimps and shellfish remained stable [28][30][32][40]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position has changed from short to long, but the funds are flowing out, which is a positive factor [9].