大越期货原油早报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Overnight crude oil fluctuated repeatedly. Geopolitical factors, such as the US and Israel withdrawing from negotiations with Hamas, increased geopolitical concerns, and the disruption of crude oil exports at Russian ports also boosted oil prices. However, the pessimistic outlook for trade negotiations still pressured oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will continue to oscillate, with short - term trading in the range of 505 - 515, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals are neutral as the EU is negotiating trade with the US while preparing counter - tariff lists, and there are geopolitical issues in the Middle East. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. Inventory data indicates a decline in US API and EIA inventories, which is bullish, but the increase in Cushing area inventory is a factor to consider. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, being neutral. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil show different trends, also being neutral. Overall, short - term trading is in the 505 - 515 range, and long - term is on hold [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US Middle East peace envoy recalled the negotiation team as Hamas showed a lack of willingness to reach a cease - fire in Gaza, and Israel's negotiation team also withdrew. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates and gave a moderately optimistic assessment of the euro - zone economy, and will adjust strategies according to US tariff negotiation progress. The US Treasury Secretary said that US - China trade is in a "good state" and will discuss China's suspension of purchasing Russian and Iranian oil [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand. Bearish factors are OPEC+ continuous three - month production increase, tense US trade relations with other economies, and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel. The market is driven by short - term geopolitical conflicts and waiting for the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: For Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil, the settlement prices changed, with WTI and Oman showing increases, Brent a slight decrease, and SC a small increase [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, etc., all increased, with different increase amplitudes [9]. - Inventory Data: The US API and EIA inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, while the Cushing area inventory increased. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged as of July 24 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of July 15, the net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, and the net long positions of Brent crude oil increased [3].