大越期货甲醇早报-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to be mainly volatile this week, with MA2509 trading in the range of 2,400 - 2,500 yuan/ton. The port market may continue to fluctuate within a range, and the inland market has certain support on the supply side. There is no prominent contradiction in the fundamentals, and industry players are cautiously optimistic about the future market [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - The port market may continue to fluctuate within a range due to factors such as stable import arrivals, additional inflow to social warehouses, and potential impacts from tariff and crude oil news. The inland market has weakened demand during the traditional high - temperature off - season, and most downstream products are in a loss state, but the supply side is supported by continuous external procurement by CTO plants in the northwest and multiple device overhauls [4]. - The basis of the 09 contract is 10, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation. As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports decreased by 0.89 million tons compared to the previous period, and the overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 million tons to 32.58 million tons, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line, also positive. However, the main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is a negative factor [4]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Positive factors: Some devices have stopped production, the methanol production in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid production capacity has been put into operation, and CTO plants in the northwest are continuously procuring methanol externally [6]. - Negative factors: Some previously stopped devices have resumed production, there will be concentrated vessel arrivals at the ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE production has declined significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,490 yuan/ton. From July 18 to July 24, the spot price in Jiangsu increased by 3.48%, and the futures price increased by 4.86%. The basis decreased by 32 yuan/ton [4][9][11]. - Cost and profit: From July 18 to July 24, the profit of coal - based methanol increased by 55 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 33 yuan/ton. The production costs of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid all increased to varying degrees, while the spot prices remained unchanged, resulting in a decrease in profits [20][33][36][39]. - Operating rate: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [8]. - Inventory: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 58.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.89 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 million tons to 32.58 million tons [4]. - External market price: From July 18 to July 24, the CFR price of methanol in China increased by 1.11%, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged. The price difference between China and Southeast Asia increased by 3 US dollars/ton [24]. 4. Overhaul Status - Domestic devices: Multiple domestic methanol production enterprises in the Northwest, North, East, and Southwest regions have carried out overhauls, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Ningxia Changyi, and others [55]. - Foreign devices: Some Iranian methanol production devices are in the process of restarting and recovery, and some devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, while some are under maintenance [56]. - Olefin devices: Some olefin - producing enterprises in the Northwest, East, and other regions have carried out overhauls or have planned overhauls, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy [57].