农产品早报-20250725

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn: In the short - term, the price of spot and near - month contracts has strong support due to the supply - demand gap before the new crop is launched. In the long - term, potential increases in imports and lower new - season planting costs may put downward pressure on prices [1]. - Starch: Short - term prices are expected to have a weak rebound, while long - term prices are expected to be bearish due to high inventory and lower expected raw material costs [2]. - Sugar: International sugar prices are under pressure from Brazilian supply, but may rebound. Domestic sugar prices have upward pressure due to upcoming large imports [5]. - Cotton: After a rapid price increase, prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. - Eggs: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. - Apples: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and spot prices are affected by seasonal fruits [11]. - Pigs: Spot prices are in a weak and volatile state. Long - term supply pressure remains, and futures need further spot verification [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: Corn prices in different regions remained relatively stable from July 18 - 24, with some minor changes. Starch prices were also stable, and the processing profit was in a loss state [1]. - Market Analysis: Corn supply tension has been alleviated by auctions, but the supply - demand gap persists in the short - term. Starch prices follow raw material prices and are expected to be bearish in the long - term [1][2]. Sugar - Price Data: Sugar spot prices in different regions were mostly stable from July 18 - 24, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the Kunming price. The import profit and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - Market Analysis: International sugar prices are affected by Brazilian supply, and domestic prices are affected by imports [5]. Cotton - Price Data: The price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20 yuan from July 18 - 24, and the import profit and other data changed slightly [6]. - Market Analysis: Cotton prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. Eggs - Price Data: Egg spot prices in different regions increased from July 18 - 24, and the basis also increased [7]. - Market Analysis: Egg prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. Apples - Price Data: Apple spot prices in Shandong remained stable from July 18 - 24, and the basis decreased [10][11]. - Market Analysis: New - season production may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season [11]. Pigs - Price Data: Pig prices in different regions decreased from July 18 - 24, and the basis changed significantly [11]. - Market Analysis: Pig spot prices are in a weak and volatile state, and long - term supply pressure remains [11].