《农产品》日报-20250725

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may strengthen slowly after oscillating in the range of 4300 - 4350 ringgit, but are likely to weaken after the end - of - month market re - assesses concerns about inventory growth. Domestic palm oil futures maintain a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand firmly above 9000 yuan after oscillating in the 9000 - 9200 range. - The USDA's increase in the industrial use of US soybean oil to more than half of consumption and the hope for Indian Diwali stocking boost the palm oil and vegetable oil markets. CBOT soybean oil may rise again in the short term. In the domestic market, the oil mills'催提 before contract execution expiration in August has a negative impact on the spot basis, but the trade - cost support and increasing demand after July will support the basis [1]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June decreased more than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's output may not meet expectations. The price of raw sugar may find a short - term bottom, but the overall trend is still bearish due to the expected increase in production. In the domestic market, low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi, but the entry of refined sugar into the market and expected increase in imports will lead to a marginal loosening of supply - demand, so a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. Corn - The policy auction of imported corn has limited impact. Supply - side factors such as tight remaining grain, traders' reluctance to sell, and transportation disruptions from heavy rainfall keep the number of corn - arriving vehicles low. However, low profit margins limit the willingness of deep - processing enterprises to raise prices. Demand - side factors show low deep - processing startup rates and sufficient feed - enterprise inventories. Wheat has a substitution advantage but is supported by the price - support policy, limiting the decline of corn prices. In the medium term, tight supply, low imports, and increasing aquaculture consumption will support corn prices. In the short term, the market is quiet, and the market may fluctuate narrowly [7]. Meal - US soybeans are at the bottom and may be supported by expected drought in the main production areas in August and improved trade expectations. Brazilian soybeans are firm due to high premiums, but Chinese purchase rumors of US soybeans suppress the rise of Brazilian premiums. In the domestic market, soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. Short - term supply is high, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, so the basis has limited downside. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand of the cotton industry is still weak, but the rising cotton price has led to some follow - up price increases. The inventory pressure from the sale of old cotton after the rise in Zhengzhou cotton prices is not concentrated, and the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton harvest. In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate at a high level, and will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. Pork - The recent rise in the pork futures market is driven by capital sentiment. The current supply - demand situation is weak. Although there may be a short - term boost at the end of the month, the subsequent resumption of group - farm sales and the need to sell large pigs from small - scale farmers suggest that short - term pig prices are not optimistic. Spot prices are expected to bottom - oscillate, and the upside of the near - month 09 contract is limited. The far - month contracts are affected by policies, and caution should be exercised in trading [15]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to the high inventory of laying hens, but high - temperature weather has reduced egg weight and production rates, resulting in a tight supply of large - sized eggs. The peak - season demand for eggs has started, with increased participation from traders and food enterprises. The price of eggs is expected to rise this week, but the increase may be limited by sufficient supply and high - temperature weather [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data Palm Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Jiangsu Grade 1 palm oil was 8360 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 8166 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. The basis was 194 yuan/ton, down 17.80%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21,695 [1]. Soybean Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree soybean oil was 9050 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the futures price of P2509 was 8994 yuan/ton, up 1.22%. The basis was - 54 yuan/ton, down 1000.00%. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port showed corresponding changes [1]. Rapeseed Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9570 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the futures price of OI509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, down 17.02% [1]. Sugar - On July 24, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 2668 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the futures price of 2509 was 5866 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The basis, warehouse receipts, and other indicators also changed accordingly. In the spot market, the prices in Nanning and Kunming showed different trends, and the import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased [3]. Corn - On July 25, the futures price of corn 2509 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The basis, 9 - 1 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. For corn starch, the futures price of 2509 was 2669 yuan/ton, down 0.22%, and the basis increased [7]. Meal - On July 25, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2860 yuan/ton, down 2.05%; the futures price of M2509 was 3025 yuan/ton, down 2.26%. The basis, import - crushing profit, and other indicators of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all changed [10]. Cotton - On July 25, the futures price of cotton 2509 was 14160 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures price of 2601 was 14065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis, 9 - 1 spread, and other indicators showed corresponding changes. In the spot market, the prices of Xinjiang - delivered cotton and other indicators increased slightly [12]. Pork - On July 25, the futures price of pork 2511 was 14210 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; the futures price of 2509 was 14365 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. The basis, 9 - 11 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. Spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees [15]. Eggs - On July 25, the futures price of the egg 09 contract was 3636 yuan/500KG, down 0.03%; the futures price of the 08 contract was 3562 yuan/500KG, down 1.41%. The basis, 9 - 8 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. The prices of egg - producing areas, egg - chicken seedlings, and other related indicators also showed different trends [18]. Industry Situation Sugar - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 million tons, up 4.59%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi decreased by 3.26%. The national and Guangxi sugar sales rates increased, and the national industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [3]. Cotton - The commercial inventory decreased by 10.2% month - on - month, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, the import volume decreased by 25.0%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.7%. The yarn and fabric inventory days increased, the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, and the processing profit of spinning enterprises decreased by 0.9%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles increased by 4.1%, and the export situation of textiles and clothing showed different trends [12]. Pork - The daily slaughter volume increased by 0.73%, the weekly white - strip pork price decreased by 1.01%, the weekly piglet and sow prices remained unchanged, the weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.27%, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 32.11%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 159.05%, and the monthly inventory of breeding sows increased by 0.10% [15].