广发期货《黑色》日报-20250725

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The rise of steel is mainly policy - driven. After the confirmation of the anti - involution expectation in the coal industry on the 22nd, it is expected that ferrous metals will continue to be strong. Considering the short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant and the market sentiment has not fully fermented, it is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [1]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: The prices of some steel products have changed. For example, the price of hot - rolled coil spot in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price of hot - rolled coil spot in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different contracts of steel also showed fluctuations [1]. - Cost and Profit: The costs of steel production processes such as steel billet, electric furnace, and converter have changed. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profits of threaded steel in some regions increased [1]. - Production and Inventory: The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%. The inventory of some steel products such as threaded steel decreased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [1]. - Transaction and Demand: The building materials trading volume increased by 22.6%, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased by 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. In the short - term, iron ore will oscillate. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions at high levels and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: The prices of different types of iron ore and their spreads showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of PB powder increased by 0.3%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.0% [4]. - Supply and Demand: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows high - level pig iron production, and the terminal demand is strong in the off - season [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased, and the available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The coke futures rose strongly, and the spot market improved with multiple rounds of price increase expectations. The coking coal futures also rose strongly, and the spot market continued to rise. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions of coke at high levels, adopt the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore for coke, and hold long positions of coking coal and gradually reduce them at high levels, and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore for coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: The prices of coke and coking coal and their spreads changed. For example, the price of Shanxi first - class wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 4.5% [6]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of coke was affected by factors such as slow coal mine复产 and corporate losses, and the demand increased due to the resumption of blast furnaces. The supply of coking coal was in short supply, and the demand increased due to the high - level pig iron production [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of coke decreased in some links and increased in others, showing an overall medium - level state. The inventory of coking coal decreased significantly in mines, ports, and other places, and the inventory of downstream increased [6].