《有色》日报-20250725

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. Market sentiment is positive, but there is a risk of short - term sentiment reversal. The demand side has weakened, but domestic macro policies and low inventory support the price. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term price may be strong above 3100 yuan, but there are risks such as policy changes and squeeze - out risks. Mid - term, it is recommended to short at high prices. For aluminum, short - term prices are under pressure at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 21,000. Focus on de - stocking inflection points and demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main reference range of 19,600 - 20,400. Pay attention to upstream scrap aluminum supply and import marginal changes [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,500. Long - term supply is expected to be loose, and follow - up attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [9]. Nickel - Short - term nickel prices are expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 128,000. Focus on macro - expectation changes [11]. Tin - Short - term tin prices are strong. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to market sentiment changes and Myanmar's resumption of production progress [14]. Stainless Steel - Short - term stainless steel prices will fluctuate, with the main reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Pay attention to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Short - term lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to increase volatility and be cautious in unilateral trading. Focus on macro - expectation changes and supply adjustments [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.01% to 79,795 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.15% to 1,304 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 113.49 million tons, and imports increased by 18.74% to 30.05 million tons [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.62% to 20,850 yuan/ton. The alumina price in Shandong increased by 0.16% to 3,220 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamental Data: In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 725.81 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.25% to 20,200 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 61.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 million tons [5]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.26% to 22,880 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamental Data: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 million tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 3.61 million tons [9]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.52% to 124,700 yuan/ton. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel increased by 0.88% to 121,953 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamental Data: In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons [11]. Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.30% to 272,400 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 13,810 tons [14]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,900 yuan/ton [17]. - Fundamental Data: In June, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons, and imports decreased by 12.48% to 10.95 million tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.14% to 70,550 yuan/ton. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 152.34% to 1,230 yuan/ton [20]. - Fundamental Data: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78,090 tons, and demand decreased by 0.15% to 93,815 tons [20].