甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250725

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Release Date: July 25, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factors realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - Plastic: For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [8]. - PP: Polypropylene inventory in upstream and mid - stream is decreasing. The basis is +100, and non - standard price difference is neutral. Import profit is around - 500, and export is good. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract may face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which can be alleviated by strong exports or more PDH device maintenance [8]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening. Attention should be paid to commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From July 18 to July 24, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of江苏现货 increased by 51 to 2468, and the price of华南现货 increased by 43 to 2448. The主力基差 decreased by 8 to - 20, and the盘面MTO profit remained unchanged at - 1237 [2]. Plastic Polyethylene - Price Data: From July 18 to July 24, the price of东北亚乙烯 remained at 820. The price of华北LL increased by 50 to 7230, and the price of华东LL decreased by 10 to 7315. The主力期货 price increased by 97 to 7385 [8]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From July 18 to July 24, the price of山东丙烯 decreased by 50 to 6250. The price of华东PP increased by 10 to 7100, and the主力期货 price increased by 85 to 7181 [8]. PVC - Price Data: From July 18 to July 24, the price of西北电石 remained at 2250, and the price of山东烧碱 remained at 842. The price of电石法 - 华东 decreased by 10 to 5060, and the基差 (高端交割品) increased by 10 to - 80 [10][11].