Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend. The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead futures was active, but it was switched to the 2509 main contract on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.65% for 2508. In the context of declining supply and insufficient demand, Shanghai lead still showed a slight increase this week. Future trading will mainly focus on anti - involution and the Fed's interest - rate meeting. Whether there will be an unexpected interest rate cut in July may become the key trading point in the market [4]. - The operating rate of primary lead smelters has decreased due to the decline in lead prices, leading to a decline in production. Currently, the operating rate of primary lead remains stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product revenue is stable. However, with the continuous fluctuation of lead prices, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. For secondary lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, resulting in a tight overall supply. From the actual resumption of production rhythm, the resumption progress is slow due to cost inversion. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak season, the actual spot trading is average, and downstream customers are still in a wait - and - see state. The slow inventory removal of dealers has suppressed the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak season effect has not yet appeared. Domestic inventory shows a slight upward trend, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. In summary, the overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will not change much, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - It is recommended that the Shanghai lead main contract 2509 fluctuate mainly, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,400 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend this week. The main contract 2508 was active but switched to 2509 on Friday, with a 0.65% increase for 2508. Future trading will focus on anti - involution and the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and an unexpected July rate cut may be the trading focus [4]. - Market Outlook: Primary lead production has declined due to price and processing fee drops. Secondary lead supply is tight due to raw material shortages and slow resumption. The lead - acid battery industry is approaching the peak season, but actual demand is weak, and inventory is rising. Overall, supply is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will be stable, and lead prices may fluctuate upward [4]. - Operation Suggestion: The Shanghai lead main contract 2509 is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,400, with a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900 [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: Domestic and foreign lead futures prices have increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio has decreased. As of July 25, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price was $2,035/ton, and the lead futures closing price (active contract) was 16,955 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai - London ratio of 8.33 [6][10]. - Premium and Discount: Domestic and foreign lead premium and discount have weakened. As of July 25, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 200 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $24.27/ton [12][16]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Foreign and domestic lead inventories and warehouse receipts have decreased, indicating that overall demand for Shanghai lead has flattened. As of July 24, 2025, the total lead inventory was 6.58 tons (down 0.1 million tons), the LME lead total inventory was 269,325 tons (down 925 tons), and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt quantity was 59,959 tons (down 325 tons) [29][33]. 3. Industry Situation - Supply - Primary Lead: The operating rate and production of primary lead enterprises have decreased due to lower lead prices and processing fees. As of July 18, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 70.84% (down 7.03% from last week), and the weekly production was 33,200 tons (down 2,900 tons from last week) [18][20]. - Supply - Secondary Lead: The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises has continued to decline, and production is still in the off - season. As of July 18, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 18,900 tons (down 1,300 tons month - on - month), and the average capacity utilization rate was 41.25% (down 2.22% month - on - month). The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged, with 68 enterprises as of June 30, 2025 [24][27][37]. - Supply - Trade: Lead exports have decreased in growth rate, while imports have increased significantly. In June, the export volume of refined lead was 3,183 tons (down 42.69% month - on - month and up 133.69% year - on - year), and the import volume of refined lead was 817 tons, with a lead alloy import volume of 10,657 tons. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of refined lead and lead products was 34,748 tons (up 29.89% year - on - year), and the cumulative import volume was 75,013 tons (up 152.1% year - on - year) [39][41]. - Demand - Processing Fees: Domestic lead concentrate processing fees have declined, while imported ore processing fees have remained flat, which will continue to affect production. As of July 18, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, and the average processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $50/thousand tons [44][46]. - Demand - Automobile Production and Sales: The growth rate of automobile production and sales has decreased. In June 2025, domestic automobile sales were 2.904 million (up 8.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year). From January to June, the cumulative export volume of refined lead and lead products increased by 29.89% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 152.1% year - on - year [48][51]. - Demand - Battery and Charging Piles: The price of lead - acid batteries has remained stable, and the growth rate of public charging piles has slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4,082,800, and as of July 24, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead - acid batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan/group [53][57].
沪铅市场周报：联储会议即将开启，沪铅有望交易预期-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-25 11:22