Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2460 - 2550 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - Affected by favorable macro - policies this week, the market trading atmosphere is good, and inland enterprises have smooth sales, driving a slight increase in pending orders and a significant decrease in enterprise inventory [8] - This week, the methanol port unloading speed is far lower than expected, resulting in an unexpected reduction in port inventory. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels may increase significantly, and port inventory may accumulate, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - This week, the operation load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly, and the overall olefin industry's start - up decreased slightly. Next week, the Zhongmei Mengda plant is expected to resume, and the olefin industry's start - up will increase [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2460 - 2550 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market is slightly stronger this week. The price in Jiangsu ranges from 2370 - 2480 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2370 - 2450 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market mainly rises. The price in the northern line of Ordos ranges from 2085 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranges from 2255 - 2285 yuan/ton. Favorable macro factors, low inventory in production areas, some device renovations, and external procurement demand from olefins lead to rising prices [8] - Market outlook: The output of restored methanol production capacity is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, with a slight increase in overall production. Affected by favorable macro - policies, the market trading atmosphere is good, enterprise inventory decreases, and pending orders increase. Port inventory decreases unexpectedly this week, and may accumulate next week. The olefin industry's start - up may increase next week [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - The price of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou fluctuates and closes higher this week, with a weekly increase of 6.51% [11] - As of July 25, the MA 9 - 1 spread is - 68 [16] - As of July 25, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts is 10134, an increase of 1590 from last week [23] Spot Market - As of July 25, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China is 2487.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 102.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China is 2050 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China is 437.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [29] - As of July 24, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 282 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port is 51 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - As of July 25, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol is - 31.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.5 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - As of July 23, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 665 yuan/ton, the same as last week. As of July 24, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.12 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.39 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] Industry - As of July 24, China's methanol production is 1898825 tons, an increase of 29100 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate is 83.98%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% [44] - As of July 23, the total methanol port inventory in China is 72.58 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreases by 8.70 tons, and in South China increases by 2.26 tons. The methanol port inventory decreases unexpectedly this week. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 33.98 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.48 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70% [48] - In June 2025, China's methanol import volume is 122.02 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.58%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative methanol import volume is 537.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of July 24, the methanol import profit is 17.63 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.2 yuan/ton from last week [51] Downstream - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices is 86.08%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15%. The operation load of olefin enterprises in East China decreases slightly this week, and the overall industry's start - up decreases slightly [54] - As of July 25, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 1136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 356 yuan/ton from last week [57]
瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-25 11:22