合成橡胶市场周报-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber price in Shandong market fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1500 to 1,2300 yuan/ton. Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina raised the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 500 yuan/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 1,2200 and 1,2300 yuan/ton [6]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has weakened, and the trading center of butadiene rubber is under pressure due to shipment pressure. After the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin next week, the domestic supply increase will gradually appear, and the shipment pressure on the spot side will increase. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will tend to increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly this week, but the overall shipment performance was lower than expected at the end of the month, and the finished product inventory increased slightly. There is an expectation that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises will decline in the short term [6]. - The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,1800 - 1,2800 in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber price in Shandong market fluctuated after rising, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber was raised by 500 yuan/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was between 1,2200 and 1,2300 yuan/ton [6]. - Market Outlook: The support from cost and supply side has weakened. After the restart of some enterprises next week, the supply will increase, and the shipment pressure on the spot side will rise. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may decline in the short term [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,1800 and 1,2800 in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 6.16% [10]. - Position Analysis: No specific content provided in the summary scope. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of July 25, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [17]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of July 25, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,390 tons, an increase of 290 tons compared with last week [20]. Spot Market - Spot Price and Basis: As of July 24, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 1,2100 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton compared with last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. 3. Industry Conditions Upstream - External Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of July 24, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 576.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.56 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of July 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70%, an increase of 2.04% compared with last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared with last week [30]. Industry - Production and Capacity Utilization: In June 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons compared with last month. As of July 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42% compared with last week [34]. - Production Profit: As of July 24, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton compared with last week [37]. - Inventory: As of July 25, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,320 tons, an increase of 70 tons compared with last week. The inventory of manufacturers was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with last week; the inventory of traders was 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons compared with last week [40]. Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points [43]. - Tire Exports: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, the cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [46]. 4. Options Market Analysis - No relevant content found