期债持续调整，等待企稳信号

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy continued to recover in the first half of the year, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year and a 1.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2, providing strong support for the full - year GDP growth target of around 5%. In June, industrial production increased slightly, while fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable at a low level. However, the price level was under pressure, with PPI in the negative growth range for seven consecutive months, indicating insufficient demand and supply - demand imbalance. In terms of financial data, social financing grew more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Against the backdrop of the stable economic development in the first half of the year, the urgency of large - scale incremental policies in the second half may decrease [93]. - In the overseas market, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded more than expected, with strong growth in the service sector, indicating that the economy's internal momentum remains resilient. The labor market is stable, with the number of initial jobless claims reaching the lowest level since April. Trade tensions have eased, with recent trade agreements between the US and Japan and progress in US - EU tariff negotiations. However, the independence of US policies is challenged as the US president visited the Fed to pressure for interest rate cuts, increasing concerns about the politicization of monetary policy. Given the strong economic data, the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is further reduced, and policy path uncertainty may increase [93]. - Affected by policy themes such as "anti - involution" and Yajiang Water Conservancy Project construction, the equity market continued to strengthen, and the bond market continued to adjust, with long - term bonds performing significantly worse than short - term bonds. If the relevant details of the "anti - involution" policy are further introduced, it will continue to put pressure on the bond market in the short term. Due to the weak economic recovery and loose liquidity, the adjustment space for long - term bonds may be limited, and interest - rate bonds are likely to continue the pattern of weakening in a volatile manner. It is necessary to focus on the sustainability of the strong performance of risk assets. Operationally, it is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after the market stabilizes [94]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - Weekly Data: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 2.05%, 0.61%, 0.43%, and 0.13% respectively. The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased, as did their open interests [11][15][30]. - Treasury Bond Futures Market Review: The trading volumes and open interests of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased [30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Key News Review: As of the end of Q2, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Foreign investment in RMB bonds increased, with the total amount of foreign - held RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion. Foreign investment in domestic stocks improved, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in stocks and funds in H1, and a net increase of $18.8 billion in May and June. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for Sino - US economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30. The 2025 central budgetary investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically allocated, focusing on modern industrial systems, infrastructure, new urbanization, and rural revitalization. The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to combat strategic mineral smuggling. The US - Japan trade agreement was reached, with the US reducing the "reciprocal tariff" on Japan from 25% to 15%, and Japan increasing US rice imports and investing $550 billion in the US. The US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, while the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024 [33][34]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - Spread Changes: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and between 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed. The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread widened slightly, the 30 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed slightly, and the 2 - year and 5 - year contracts' inter - period spreads widened [42][46][52]. - Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased slightly [62]. - Interest Rate Changes: Overnight Shibor, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month interest rates all increased, and the weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.65%. The yields of Treasury bonds weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 3.5 - 7.3bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by 5.9bp and 6.3bp to 1.74% and 1.96% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly [66][70]. - Central Bank Open - Market Operations: The central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, 400 billion yuan in MLF injections, with 1.7268 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases and 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 109.5 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.51% [73]. - Bond Issuance and Maturity: This week, bonds worth 1.578232 trillion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1.757588 trillion yuan, resulting in a net financing of - 179.357 billion yuan [77]. - Market Sentiment: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1419, with a cumulative increase of 79 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB weakened. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield and the VIX index both decreased slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium increased [82][87][90]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategies - The domestic economy continues to recover, but the price level is under pressure. Overseas, the US economy is resilient, but policy uncertainty increases. Affected by policy themes, the bond market continues to adjust. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after the market stabilizes [93][94].