瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices rose collectively this week, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market is in a macro data vacuum period, and investors are speculating on news and policy expectations. The upcoming Politburo meeting and the third Sino-US trade negotiation in Sweden have raised market expectations for more incremental policies and improved Sino-US trade relations. Market trading activity has increased, and the total trading volume of northbound funds has exceeded 900 billion yuan for three consecutive weeks [6][12]. - Treasury futures fell collectively this week, and the bond market was under pressure. The "anti-involution" policy and other factors have accelerated the diversion of funds to the stock and commodity markets. If relevant details of the "anti-involution" policy are further introduced, it will continue to put pressure on the bond market in the short term. Under the influence of weak economic recovery and loose liquidity, the adjustment space of long-term bonds may be limited, and interest rate bonds are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - The commodity index may continue to rise due to the in - line GDP growth in the second quarter, the approaching Politburo meeting, and the progress of the "anti-involution" policy and tariff negotiations [6]. - The US dollar may maintain a short - term range - bound and slightly stronger trend due to the resilience of the employment market and the easing of trade frictions. The euro may be temporarily suppressed in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties and the ongoing trade negotiation between the US and the EU [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - Stock Market: A-share major indices, except the Shanghai Composite Index, rose by more than 2%. The four stock index futures also rose, with small and medium-cap stocks stronger. The market is in a macro data vacuum, awaiting the Politburo meeting and Sino-US trade negotiations. Market trading activity increased, and northbound funds' trading volume has been high for three consecutive weeks. The recommended allocation strategy is to watch cautiously [6][12]. - Bond Market: Treasury futures fell, and the bond market was under pressure. The "anti-involution" policy and other factors led to fund diversion. The long - end of the bond market performed much weaker than the short - end. The long - term bond adjustment space may be limited, and interest rate bonds are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The recommended allocation strategy is to watch cautiously [6]. - Commodity Market: The commodity index may continue to rise due to policy and economic factors. The recommended allocation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. - Foreign Exchange Market: The US dollar may maintain a short - term range - bound and slightly stronger trend, while the euro may be temporarily suppressed. The recommended allocation strategy is to watch cautiously [6][11]. Important News and Events - Domestic: Four departments deployed to regulate the new energy vehicle industry competition order; the "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented on September 15; the national economy in the first half of 2025 was stable and improving, and the fiscal policy will continue to be proactive in the second half; the "trade - in" policy for consumer goods has achieved significant results [14]. - International: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries to "negative"; a Fed governor called for a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July; the EU and the US are moving towards a trade agreement; the US and Japan reached a tariff negotiation agreement [11][16]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: The one - year LPR remained unchanged at 3%; the year - on - year growth rate of total social power consumption in June was 5.4%, and the consumption volume was 867 billion kWh [17]. - US: The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in July was - 20; the Conference Board Leading Index in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month; the initial jobless claims in the week ending July 19 were 2.17 million; the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5 [17]. - EU: The consumer confidence index in July was - 14.7; the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8; the ECB deposit mechanism rate remained at 2% [17]. - Other Countries: The manufacturing PMI in the UK, Germany, and France in July showed different degrees of change [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - July 28 - 31: Include the UK's CBI retail sales difference, US housing price indices, GDP data of France and the eurozone, US ADP employment data, and central bank interest rate decisions of the US and Japan [80][81]. - August 1: Include Japan's unemployment rate, eurozone CPI, US unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, and ISM manufacturing PMI [81].