Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the urea market from July 19 - 25, 2025, released by Ruida Futures Research Institute [2] - The researcher is Lin Jingyi, with futures qualification number F03139610 and investment consulting certificate number Z0021558 [2] Group 2: Weekly Summary - This week, the domestic urea market showed an oscillating upward trend. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong rose to 1800 - 1850 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - New plant overhauls have led to a slight decrease in domestic urea daily output. Next week, 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 2 stopped enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of output reduction is high [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly, with only limited local agricultural top - dressing demand. The rigid demand support is limited. The compound fertilizer industry is in the autumn fertilizer production stage, with stable and rising operating rates, but high - temperature and high - humidity weather still restricts some production [6] - Recently, domestic urea demand is weak, and the overall order - taking and shipment of urea factories have slowed down. Although domestic urea enterprise inventories continue to decline due to some goods being exported and concentrated at ports, the decline has narrowed [6] - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1770 - 1830 yuan [6] Group 3: Futures Market - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures oscillated and closed higher, with a weekly increase of 3.32% [10] - As of July 25, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 4 [14] - As of July 25, there were 2523 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 0 compared with last week [20] Group 4: Spot Market - As of July 24, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1810 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1820 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [25] - As of July 24, the FOB China price of urea was 435 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars/ton compared with last week [28] - As of July 24, the urea basis was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton compared with last week [32] Group 5: Upstream Market - As of July 23, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [36] - As of July 24, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.12 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.39 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [36] Group 6: Industry Situation - As of July 24, China's urea production was 135.47 tons, a decrease of 1.40 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous period, and the downward trend continued [39] - As of July 24, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.3 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons week - on - week, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. The overall port inventory changed little [43] - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 85.88 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.10%. The inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed [43] - In June 2025, urea exports were 66240.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2618.13%; the export average price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4662.05% [46] Group 7: Downstream Market - As of July 24, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03 percentage points. It is expected to continue to increase slightly next week, but high - temperature and high - humidity weather still restricts some production [49] - As of July 24, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 65.20%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points from last week [49]
瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-25 11:16