Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.86%. Internationally, the monsoon season has led to a good supply outlook in major Asian sugar - producing countries, casting a shadow over the raw sugar market price. However, news of Coca - Cola changing its formula, significant year - on - year increase in China's recent imports, and potential buyers like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran have improved demand to some extent. Domestically, the price discrepancy between domestic and international markets has opened the profit window for out - of - quota imports, releasing import pressure. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, which suppressed sugar prices. On the demand side, the summer consumption peak has led to inventory - building needs in the food and beverage industry and a recovery in seasonal consumption such as cold drinks, providing some support for prices. Overall, the downward trend of the external market has slowed down, and its suppressing effect on domestic prices has weakened. Coupled with the domestic peak consumption season, the sugar futures price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the increase in imports and the expected global supply surplus will limit the upside potential. It is recommended to go long at low prices with a light position in the short term and control risks. Future factors to monitor include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rose with a weekly increase of about 0.86%. The external market is under pressure from supply surplus expectations but supported by demand improvement. Domestically, import pressure and demand support co - exist, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term. Future factors to watch are consumption and Brazilian/Indian sugar exports [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The price of the US Sugar 10 - month contract rose with a weekly increase of about 1.15%. As of July 8, 2025, the non - commercial long position of ICE No. 11 sugar was 201,975 contracts, a 2.08% week - on - week increase; the non - commercial short position was 262,426 contracts, a 0.88% week - on - week decrease; the non - commercial net position was - 60,451 contracts, a 9.66% week - on - week increase. The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 4,166 contracts, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 20,842 contracts [9][19]. - Spot Market: As of July 25, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,910 yuan/ton. As of July 22, 2025, the estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Brazilian sugar was 5,665 yuan/ton, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease; the in - quota price was 4,460 yuan/ton, also a 0.49% week - on - week decrease. The estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Thai sugar was 5,743 yuan/ton, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease; the in - quota price was 4,520 yuan/ton, a 0.48% week - on - week decrease. As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,480 yuan/ton, a 0.07% week - on - week decrease; the out - of - quota profit was 275 yuan/ton, a 1.85% week - on - week increase. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,420 yuan/ton, a 0.07% week - on - week decrease; the out - of - quota profit was 197 yuan/ton, a 3.14% week - on - week increase [24][27][32]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, and the national sugar production was 1.11621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32,210 tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [36][40][44]. - Demand Side: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar production was 1.11621 million tons, a 0.49% month - on - month increase; the cumulative sales volume was 811,380 tons, a 12.00% month - on - month increase; the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% month - on - month increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month decrease; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% month - on - month increase [48][53]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - Option Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the sugar market this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Sugar 2509 contract [54]. - Stock Market: The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided [58].
白糖市场周报：需求旺季提振，白糖价格重心略抬升-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-25 11:37