Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment and improved raw material fundamentals drive the strengthening of futures and spot markets. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce measures to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity in key industries, leading to strong macro expectations. The China Iron and Steel Association aims to prevent over - capacity risks. - Overseas, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden. - In terms of supply and demand, coke has a third price increase. Raw material supply is improving. Iron - water production is at a high level, and most coal mines have no inventory pressure, with strong price - holding intentions. The total coking coal inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton. - Technically, the daily K - line of the coke main contract is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a bullish trend. - Strategy suggestion: With positive macro expectations and the market sentiment extremely high due to coking coal's five daily limit up movements driving coke's one daily limit up, the coke main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a plan to promote structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity in key industries. The China Iron and Steel Association focuses on preventing over - capacity risks [9]. - Overseas: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30 [9]. - Supply and Demand: Coke has a third price increase. Raw material supply is improving. Current iron - water production is 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons. Iron - water production is at a high level. Most coal mines have no inventory pressure, and coal mines have strong price - holding intentions. The total coking coal inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton [9]. - Technical: The daily K - line of the coke main contract is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a bullish trend [9]. - Strategy: The coke main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of July 25, the coke futures contract position is 55,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 166 lots. The 1 - 9 contract month spread is 48.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 points. The registered coke warehouse receipt is 760 lots, unchanged from the previous period. The futures screw - coke ratio is 1.90, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 [13][18]. - Spot Market: As of July 24, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. As of July 25, the coke basis is - 405.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 166.0 [26]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Industry: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61%, an increase of 0.71%. The daily coke output is 51.92, an increase of 0.51. The coke inventory is 50.12, a decrease of 5.43. The total coking coal inventory is 841.21, an increase of 51.02. The available coking coal days are 12.2 days, an increase of 0.62 days [34]. - Downstream: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 242.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.62 tons. As of July 18, the total coke inventory (independent coking plants + 4 major ports + steel mills) is 886.63 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.37 tons and a year - on - year increase of 13.62% [38]. - Inventory Structure: The port inventory of coking coal and coke has decreased. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills has increased. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 86.97%, an increase of 0.13%, and the daily coke output is 47.16, an increase of 0.07 [42]. - Fundamental Data: In June, China's coke and semi - coke exports were 51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.3%; from January to June, the cumulative exports were 351 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%. In June, China's steel exports were 967.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 5,814.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [46]. - Housing Data: In June 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of July 20, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 133.91 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74%. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities increased by 23.12% month - on - month, while that in second - tier cities decreased by 12.39% month - on - month [51][55].
焦炭市场周报：工信部提稳增长方案，焦煤焦炭期价涨停-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-25 11:33