Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) both declined, with weekly decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - Internationally, there is a lack of strong factors guiding the US cotton market, which is fluctuating. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held, and trade dynamics should be monitored [7]. - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, while the demand side shows obvious signs of the off - season in the textile industry, with reduced profitability and lower operating rates of spinning enterprises [7]. - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China has increased, but there is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang due to high - temperature weather [7]. - Overall, as prices rise, downstream procurement becomes more cautious, and the upward momentum of the market is weakening. However, the tight supply provides strong support, and the market is expected to adjust strongly. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to weather and trade relations [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Analysis: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week, with decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - Market Outlook: Internationally, the US cotton market is fluctuating. Domestically, cotton supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, and the textile industry is in the off - season. The overall market is expected to adjust strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather conditions [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.28%. As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 0.89% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.40% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 15.67% month - on - month [11]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: As of July 17, the net export sales of US cotton in the current market year decreased by 32,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next market year increased by 132,600 bales. The export shipments increased by 18% compared with the previous week. As of July 22, the Cotlook:A index was 78.65 cents per pound, a 1.01% decrease month - on - month [16]. - Futures Market: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 futures traders in cotton was - 39,736, and that in cotton yarn was - 394 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,265, and that of cotton yarn was 96 [21][27][33]. - Spot Market: As of July 25, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,549 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,740 yuan per ton. As of July 23, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - spun yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton [41][54]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of July 23, 2025, the import price index of cotton (FC Index):M: 1% quota port pick - up price was 13,728 yuan per ton, a 0.26% increase month - on - month; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,438 yuan per ton, a 0.17% increase month - on - month. The import price index of cotton yarn (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C32S was 21,203 yuan per ton, a 0.09% increase month - on - month [58]. - Imported Cotton Cost - Profit: As of July 23, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,105 yuan per ton, and that of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,815 yuan per ton [62]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of June, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease month - on - month. As of June 15, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease month - on - month. In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1% [66][70]. - Mid - end Industry: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase month - on - month [74]. - Terminal Consumption: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease month - on - month [78][82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market Correlation - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [83]. - Stock Market: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [88].
棉花（纱）市场周报：下游淡季特征明显，价格有所调整-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-25 11:28