热轧卷板市场周报：终端需求韧性较强，热卷期价保持强势-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report indicates that the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, and the futures price of hot - rolled coils remains strong. Although the apparent demand has回调, the overall is still at a relatively high level. The production has a small decline, and the factory and social inventories have increased slightly. The profitability rate of steel mills has improved. Considering macro, supply - demand, cost, and technical aspects, the HC2510 contract should be cautious about chasing high prices, but buying on dips can be considered, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights 3.1.1. Market Review - As of July 25, the futures price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3507 yuan/ton (+197), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan/ton (+150) [5]. - Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline slightly, reaching 317.49 million tons (-3.65) [5]. - Apparent demand回调 but remained at a relatively high level. The current period's apparent demand was 315.24 million tons (-8.55), a year - on - year decrease of 5.98% [5]. - Factory and social inventories both increased slightly. The total inventory was 345.16 million tons (+2.25), a year - on - year decrease of 85 million tons [5]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 63.64%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from last week and 48.49 percentage points from last year [5]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the European Central Bank kept three major interest rates unchanged, and Trump gave up the idea of firing Powell. Domestically, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission advocated against "involution - style" competition, and China - US economic and trade talks were scheduled [7]. - Supply - demand: Hot - rolled coil weekly production continued to decline slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 81.11%. Factory and social inventories increased slightly, and apparent demand decreased by 8.55 million tons to 315.24 million tons [7]. - Cost: Iron ore prices冲高回调, port inventories increased, and coking coal prices rose due to supply contraction expectations [7]. - Technical: The HC2510 contract continued to rise, with a bullish arrangement of daily K - line moving averages and an expanding red column in the MACD indicator [7]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing high prices for the HC2510 contract, but consider buying on dips, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price - This week, the HC2510 contract continued to rise. It was weaker than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of - 11 yuan/ton on the 25th, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On July 25, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 58362 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2385 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of hot - rolled coil futures contracts was 63262, an increase of 28892 from the previous week [19]. 3.2.3. Spot Price - On July 25, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3510 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The national average price was 3503 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 148 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price, with a basis of 3 yuan/ton on the 25th, a week - on - week decrease of 67 yuan/ton [23]. 3.3. Upstream Market 3.3.1. Raw Material Prices - On July 25, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [30]. 3.3.2. Iron Ore Shipment and Arrival - From July 14 - 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment was 3109.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.0 million tons. The shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2552.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.8 million tons. The Chinese 47 - port arrival volume was 2511.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 371.4 million tons [34]. 3.3.3. Iron Ore Inventory - This week, the iron ore port inventory increased. The total inventory of 47 ports was 14395.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.17 million tons. The daily average discharge volume was 329.33 million tons, a decrease of 9.43 million tons. On July 24, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 106.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.75 million tons [38]. 3.3.4. Coking Plant Situation - This week, the coking plant capacity utilization rate increased to 73.61% (+0.71%), and the coke inventory decreased. The daily coke output was 51.92 (+0.51), the coke inventory was 50.12 (-5.43), the total coking coal inventory was 841.21 (+51.02), and the available coking coal days were 12.2 days (+0.62 days) [42]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply Side - In January - June, steel exports increased year - on - year. In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January - June, the cumulative crude steel output was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. In June, steel exports were 967.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90.0 million tons, and from January - June, the cumulative exports were 5814.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, steel imports were 47.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 million tons, and from January - June, the cumulative imports were 302.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [45]. - On July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 1.13 percentage points. The hot - rolled coil weekly output was 317.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.65 million tons from last week [48]. - On July 24, the hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 78 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 tons, and the social inventory of 33 cities was 367.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.25 million tons [53]. 3.4.2. Demand Side - In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 279.4 million and 290.4 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.4% and 13.8%. From January - June, the cumulative production and sales were 1562.1 million and 1565.3 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. From January - June, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 16329.61 million units (+5.5% year - on - year), household refrigerators were 5064.16 million units (+0% year - on - year), and household washing machines were 5860.36 million units (+10.3% year - on - year) [56].