广发期货《农产品》日报-20250725

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given documents. Core Views of the Reports Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may strengthen slowly after oscillating in the 4300 - 4350 ringgit range, but may weaken after the end of the rebound. Domestic palm oil futures maintain a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 9000 yuan. The US soybean oil industry's increased consumption and the expected stocking for the Indian Festival boost the palm oil and vegetable oil prices. In the short term, CBOT soybean oil may rise again. In the domestic market, the oil mills' urging for delivery may affect the spot basis quotes, but the traders' procurement cost supports the basis [1]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's output may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but the overall trend is bearish. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally loose in supply and demand, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. Corn - The import auction has limited impact. The supply of corn is tight, and traders are reluctant to sell. The transportation is affected by heavy rainfall, and the demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. Wheat has a substitution advantage, but the corn price decline is limited. In the medium term, the tight supply and low imports support the corn price. In the short term, the market is quiet, and the price fluctuates narrowly [7]. Meal - The US soybeans are at the bottom, and the Brazilian soybeans are firm. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain. The market sentiment is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand of the cotton industry is still weak, but the downstream prices are following the rise of cotton prices. The shipment of old cotton after the price increase brings some pressure, but the tight inventory problem cannot be solved before the new cotton is on the market. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate at a high level, and it will be under pressure after the new cotton is on the market [12]. Pork - The current supply and demand of the pig market are weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the spot price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The upside of the near - month contract is limited. The far - month contract is affected by policies, and short - selling is not recommended, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [15]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the high - temperature weather affects the egg production. The demand in the peak season is starting, and the prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize [19]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Conditions Palm Oil - The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade palm oil was 8360 yuan on July 24, up 0.60% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 8166 yuan, up 1.14%. The basis was 194 yuan, down 42 yuan [1]. Soybean Oil - The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree soybean oil was 9050 yuan on July 24, up 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8994 yuan, up 1.22%. The basis was - 54 yuan, down 60 yuan [1]. Rapeseed Oil - The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9570 yuan on July 24, up 0.21%. The futures price of OI509 was 9492 yuan, up 0.38%. The basis was 78 yuan, down 16 yuan [1]. Sugar - The futures price of SR2601 was 2668 yuan/ton on July 24, up 0.21%. The futures price of SR2509 was 5866 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.57 cents/pound, up 1.84% [3]. Corn - The futures price of C2509 was 2318 yuan on July 24, down 0.13%. The basis was 42 yuan, up 3 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 80 yuan, up 6 yuan [7]. Corn Starch - The futures price of CS2509 was 2669 yuan on July 24, down 0.22%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 6 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 57 yuan, up 8 yuan [7]. Cotton - The futures price of CF2509 was 14160 yuan/ton on July 24, down 0.14%. The futures price of CF2601 was 14065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ICE US cotton main contract was 68.74 cents/pound, up 0.66% [12]. Eggs - The futures price of JD09 was 3636 yuan/500KG on July 24, down 0.03%. The futures price of JD08 was 3562 yuan/500KG, down 1.41%. The basis was - 299 yuan/500KG, up 1.97% [18]. Spot Market Conditions Sugar - The spot price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming was 5910 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) and Nanning's price was - 1590 yuan, down 1.40% [3]. Corn - The FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price at Shekou was 2430 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. Cotton - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15431 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15563 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [12]. Eggs - The egg price in the producing area was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.15% [18]. Industry Conditions Sugar - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 million tons, up 4.59% [3]. Cotton - The commercial inventory was 254.24 million tons, down 10.2%. The industrial inventory was 88.21 million tons, down 2.3%. The import volume was 3.00 million tons, down 25.0% [12]. Eggs - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 3.88 yuan/feather, down 0.51%. The price of culled chickens was 4.80 yuan/jin, up 4.35%. The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.25, up 6.64% [18].