硅锰市场周报：政策支撑、企业减排，锰硅涨停或带动去库-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - level expectation is strong as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to promote the adjustment of the structure of key industries and eliminate backward production capacity, and the seminar on energy - saving and emission - reduction organized by leading manganese - based enterprises is expected to lead to a decline in the opening rate. The manganese silicon market is expected to have a supply contraction, and the market price is expected to rise. The manganese silicon should be treated as having an upward - biased trend [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Macro aspect: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the key industries to adjust the structure and eliminate backward production capacity. The seminar on dealing with the vicious involution of the industry held by leading manganese - based enterprises aims to achieve 40% energy - saving and emission - reduction [6]. - Overseas aspect: Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [6]. - Supply - demand aspect: The output of manufacturers has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the inventory is moderately high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 42,000 tons, and the downstream hot metal production is at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is 3 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 17 yuan/ton [6]. - Technical aspect: The daily K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a bullish trend [6]. - Strategy suggestion: The market expects a supply contraction. After the seminar, manganese silicon closed at the daily limit. With the futures driving up the spot price and the expected decline in the opening rate due to energy - saving and emission - reduction, the manganese ore inventory will gradually decrease. It is recommended to treat the silicon manganese as having an upward - biased trend [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures market: As of July 25th, the position of silicon manganese futures contracts was 667,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 103,000 lots; the 1 - 9 contract spread was 61, a week - on - week increase of 42 points; the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 77,656, a week - on - week decrease of 2,275; the spread between the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon September contracts was 248, a week - on - week decrease of 48 [12][16]. - Spot market: As of July 25th, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 220 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28 [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: The national average daily output of silicon manganese increased by 520 tons to 26,640 tons, and the demand for the five major steel products increased by 0.23% to 123,670 tons. The national silicon manganese output increased by 1.99% to 186,480 tons. The inventory of silicon manganese enterprises decreased by 11,300 tons to 205,000 tons [25][30]. - Upstream: The electricity cost remained flat, the price of South African manganese ore increased by 2 yuan/ton - degree to 37 yuan/ton - degree. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 42,000 tons to 428,500 tons. The arrival volume from South Africa decreased by 48% to 221,400 tons, from Australia increased by 7.79% to 44,000 tons, from Gabon decreased by 39.57% to 52,000 tons, and from Ghana increased by 98.4% to 345,800 tons. The northern region's spot production profit was - 60 yuan/ton, and the southern region's was - 420 yuan/ton [36][42][45]. - Downstream: The daily average hot metal output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons. The silicon manganese tender price of HBIS in July was 5,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton [48].