贵金属市场周报-20250725

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the precious metals market fluctuated. Gold prices were affected by factors such as US - EU tariff negotiations, Fed policy expectations, and US economic data. Silver was relatively strong due to semiconductor demand and tight inventories. Looking ahead, potential trade risks and geopolitical tensions support precious metals, while strong US economic data may suppress gold prices in the short - term. If inflation expectations rise or the Fed gives more dovish signals, precious metal prices could be boosted again [7]. - Gold is recommended to be bought on dips in the range of $3300 - 3400 per ounce, and silver should be watched in the range of $38.50 - 39.50 per ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Market Review: Gold prices rose at the beginning of the week due to US fiscal and political uncertainties and approaching US - EU tariff negotiation deadlines. However, they dropped on Wednesday as the US - Japan agreement and progress in US - EU negotiations eased risk - aversion. Fed policy interpretations were divided, and strong economic data weakened September rate - cut bets, further pressuring gold. Silver was relatively strong, with COMEX silver futures reaching a high of $39.66 per ounce, supported by semiconductor demand and tight inventories [7]. - Market Outlook: Although the US - EU tariff negotiation has eased, potential trade risks and geopolitical tensions support precious metals. Strong US economic data may suppress gold in the short - term, but rising inflation expectations or dovish Fed signals could lift prices [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Changes: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX silver was at $39.100 per ounce, up 1.63% week - on - week; Shanghai silver futures contract 2510 was at 9392 yuan per kilogram, up 2.24%. COMEX gold was at $3356.3 per ounce, down 0.05%; Shanghai gold futures contract 2510 was at 777.32 yuan per gram, up 0.26% [10]. - ETF Holdings: As of July 24, 2025, SLV silver ETF holdings were 15208 tons, up 3.5% week - on - week; SPDR gold ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 0.9% [15]. - Speculative Positions: As of July 15, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 448531 contracts, up 1.22%, and net positions were 213115, up 5.00%. COMEX silver total positions were 171474 contracts, up 5.33%, and net positions were 59448, up 1.58% [19]. - CFTC Positions: As of July 15, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, up 3.30%, and non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, down 2.70% [24]. - Basis: As of July 24, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.64 yuan per gram, up 0.27%; the silver basis was - 35 yuan per kilogram, up 43.55% [27]. - Inventories: As of July 24, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37616678.62 ounces, up 1.27%; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 28857 kilograms, up 17.38%. COMEX silver inventory was 497984759 ounces, up 0.30%; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 1211076 kilograms, down 7.10% [32]. 3.3 Silver Industry and Supply - Demand - Imports: As of June 2025, China's silver imports were 273364.75 kilograms, down 0.14% month - on - month; silver ore imports were 126019303.00 kilograms, down 7.51% [36]. - Downstream Demand: As of June 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a monthly output of 4506000 pieces and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.80% [41]. - Supply - Demand Balance: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22%; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3%. Supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% [47][51]. 3.4 Gold Industry and Supply - Demand - Prices: As of July 24, 2025, the gold recycling price was 774.7 yuan per gram, up 0.28%. Gold jewelry prices of brands like Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu also rose [55]. - Supply - Demand: In Q1 2025, gold industrial demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93%; jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47%; total demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% [61]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Data - Dollar and Bonds: This week, the US dollar index and 10 - year US Treasury yields declined slightly due to fluctuating tariff expectations. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility index rose, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [63][68]. - Inflation Expectations: Tariff negotiations made progress, and inflation expectations declined recently. The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate dropped this week [72]. - Central Bank Actions: In July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases [77].