Group 1: Report Summary - The lithium carbonate market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week, with the main contract up 15.09% and an amplitude of 17.87%, closing at 80,520 yuan/ton [5]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply expectations are somewhat repaired, but demand is temporarily weak. Consumption expectations are positive, but price increases due to market sentiment need to be treated with caution [5]. - The recommended strategy is to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [5]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - Futures prices fluctuated strongly. As of July 25, 2025, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 80,520 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 10,560 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,120 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2,380 yuan/ton [11]. Spot Market - Spot prices strengthened. As of July 25, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6,250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 7,620 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4,310 yuan/ton [15]. Group 3: Upstream Market Lithium Spodumene - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) increased. As of July 25, 2025, the average price was 740 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 32 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1547, a week-on-week decrease of 0.35% [19]. Lithium Mica and Phosphorus Lithium Aluminate - The average price of phosphorus lithium aluminate was 7,450 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1,625 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,067 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 286 yuan/ton [24]. Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Supply Side - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons from May, a decline of 16.31% and a year-on-year decline of 9.63%. The monthly export volume was 429.653 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons from May, an increase of 49.84% and a year-on-year decline of 14.28%. - The monthly output was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year-on-year increase of 5%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month-on-month decline of 5% and a year-on-year decline of 32% [29]. Demand Side Intermediate Products - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,500 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 161,150 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from May, an increase of 1.67% and a year-on-year increase of 35.25% [32]. - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,650 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 22,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from May, a decline of 3.24% and a year-on-year increase of 31.16%. The monthly operating rate was 52% [35]. - In June 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from May, a decline of 9.51% and a year-on-year increase of 13.46%. The monthly operating rate was 51%. The prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable this week [39]. - The average price of lithium manganate was 29,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 500 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from May, a decline of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 61.19% [44]. - The average price of lithium cobaltate was 222,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from May, a decline of 5.34% and a year-on-year increase of 58.97% [47]. Application Products - In June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, a month-on-month increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 9.12%. The monthly output was 1,268,000 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 0.16%; the sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [49]. - As of June 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year-on-year increase of 75.21% [55]. Group 5: Options Market - It is recommended to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility. The synthetic underlying premium and discount is 0.61, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity [58].
碳酸锂市场周报：宏观产业利好共振，波动放大谨慎对待-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-25 12:11