红枣市场周报：新作产量暂难验证，红枣震荡运行-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract price of Zhengzhou jujube futures fluctuated slightly higher, with a weekly increase of 0.92%. The jujube market is in a seasonal off - peak demand period due to the listing of summer fresh fruits, and the inventory digestion is slow with high old - crop inventory. The new - season jujube is in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. The preliminary estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 tons, down 5 - 10% from the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% from 2024. The jujube price fluctuates repeatedly in the game between high old - crop inventory and differences in the reduction range of new - season output. It is recommended to wait and see for now [10][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Future trading prompts include weather impact and consumption end. The main contract price of Zhengzhou jujube futures fluctuated slightly higher this week, with a weekly increase of 0.92%. According to Mysteel data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,090 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%. The new - season output is estimated to be 56 - 62 tons, down 5 - 10% from 2022 and 20 - 25% from 2024. It is recommended to wait and see [9][10] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The main contract price of Zhengzhou jujube futures fluctuated slightly higher this week, with a weekly increase of 0.92% [13] - Top 20 positions: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 22,674 lots [15] - Warehouse receipts: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was - 22,736 [20] - Futures spread: As of this week, the spread between the 2509 and 2601 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 1,010 yuan/ton [23] - Basis: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei gray jujube and the main contract of jujube futures was - 635 yuan/ton [24] - Purchase price of new - season jujube in main producing areas: As of July 25, 2025, the purchase price of jujube in Aksu was 4.8 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6 yuan/kg [27] - Spot price of first - grade jujube: As of July 25, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade gray jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei and Henan was 4.35 yuan/jin [32] - Spot price of special - grade jujube: As of July 25, 2025, the wholesale price of special - grade gray jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.81 yuan/kg, and in Henan was 9.8 yuan/kg [36] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side - Inventory: According to Mysteel data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,090 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%, and the sample - point inventory decreased [40] - Supply side - Output: The crop is growing well, and it is expected that the jujube output in the 2024/25 production season will recover [45] - Demand side - Export volume: In June 2025, China's jujube export volume was 1,765,107 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 17,115,674 kg, a month - on - month increase of 11.50% [48] - Demand side - BOCE trading: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Zao Hao brand was not traded [52] 3.4 Option Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Option market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week is provided, but no specific data is given [54] - Stock market - Haoxiangni: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Haoxiangni is provided, but no specific data is given [56]